In Dubai, buying an apartment came to resemble getting tickets to a concert. There were launches with 36-hour lines and people camping out to buy. Binghatti unveiled its Mercedes-Benz-branded city before 25,000 guests, with Andrea Bocelli opening the show and a drone display to close it. Entire projects sold out in hours, on plans and renders, to buyers who had no intention of living there, only of flipping the contract before handover.
Last year the city broke its record: some 270,000 sales, seven out of ten of them off-plan. A penthouse sold for 150 million dollars, according to its developer, and the future Trump Tower announced it will accept payment in cryptocurrency.
Anyone who lived through Miami in 2006 recognizes the scene: buildings sold out in a weekend, contracts changing hands two and three times before the building existed, and the certainty that prices could only go up. Between 2007 and 2011, Miami prices fell by half.
The warning signs came before the war
The warning signs in Dubai came before the war. More than a year ago, the rating agency Fitch warned that housing supply would grow three times faster than the population. JPMorgan went further: the city does not have the people to fill the 300,000 to 400,000 apartments expected through 2028.
The war and the stock market
In February the war with Iran began. The airport lost almost a third of its passengers and the rushed buyer disappeared. The stock market read it before anyone else: Dubai's real estate index is down about 18% for the year, and shares of Emaar, the largest developer, are worth a third less than on the eve of the war. Emaar sold 45% less in the first half than in the same period a year earlier. Brokers say that apartments bought off-plan, in buildings where construction has not yet started, are being resold for less than the contract price.
What is still to be delivered
What lies ahead is more worrying than what has happened. Some 120,000 new homes are expected this year, and rents are already falling: 6.2% in the second quarter alone, according to CBRE. S&P put it bluntly this week: deliveries in 2027 and 2028 "could accelerate the price correction," especially in apartments bought as investments. A new building without tenants pays neither maintenance fees nor mortgage installments.
The real test will come in 2027, when the first buildings are delivered and we see how many buyers actually close, and at what price finished apartments go back on the market.
For the Chilean investor considering buying off-plan, in Dubai or in Miami, the lesson is the same: more than the glitter of the launch, the opulence and the champagne of the sales gallery, what matters is how many apartments are in the pipeline and who is going to live in them. The seller never says. The public records do.
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Frequently asked questions
Are home prices falling in Dubai?
According to S&P Global Ratings, prices fell between 5% and 15% from the end of 2025 to September 2026, and the agency warns that deliveries in 2027 and 2028 could accelerate the correction, particularly in investor-driven apartments. Average residential rents fell 6.2% in the second quarter of 2026, according to CBRE.
What does buying off-plan mean?
It means buying an apartment in pre-construction, from plans, before the building exists. In Dubai, seven out of ten sales in 2025 were off-plan. Many buyers never intend to live there; they plan to flip the contract before handover.
What does Dubai today have in common with Miami in 2006?
Massive pre-construction sales, contracts changing hands before the building exists, and a wave of supply at the end of the cycle. Between 2007 and 2011, Miami prices fell by half (−51% on the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index). The difference lies in how many units are in the pipeline and who will live in them.
Sources: Binghatti and The National (Dec 16, 2025); Khaleej Times (Apr 1, 2024 and Dec 12, 2025); Reuters (Mar 5, 2026); Dubai Land Department via Gulf News (Jan 12, 2026); Property Monitor (Dec 2025); The National (Apr 29, 2025); S&P Cotality Case-Shiller, MIXRSA series on FRED; Fitch via Gulf News and Arabian Business (May 29, 2025); Dubai Airports via AGBI (Aug 26, 2026); DFM real estate index and Emaar Properties (closes as of Oct 8, 2026); Emaar press release (Aug 7, 2026); AGBI (May 11, 2026) and Fortune (Jun 1, 2026); CBRE via Arabian Business (Jul 29, 2026); S&P Global Ratings, Credit FAQ (Oct 7, 2026). Photo: "Dubai Sunset" by the_dead_pixel (Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0).
This note is reference analysis and does not replace legal, tax or financial advice. We advise buyers with data, from the buyer's side — not the developer's.